Mets resume rough road trip in Washington
Baseball Betting Lines
09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After breaking out of a prolonged slump with four solid starts, New York Mets hurler Mike Pelfrey fell back into his struggling ways last time out.
That is sort of how his team has been all season long.
Pelfrey will try to get back on track today against a club he has struggled against in the past as the Mets visit Washington to begin a three-game series at Nationals Park.
A 10-game winner by June 25, Pelfrey then endured a seven-start stretch in which he went 0-4 with a 9.00 earned run average over seven starts. The right- hander then rebounded to win three of his next four starts, yielding just four earned runs in that span, before taking a loss in Atlanta on Wednesday after giving up four runs on nine hits over five innings of work.
"Obviously I have to get back to executing pitches," said Pelfrey after the setback. "That is the name of the game. I didn't execute very many pitches tonight. That's a good team over there."
Pelfrey dropped to 13-8 with a 3.72 ERA on the season, and his next victory will set a new career high. However, while he is 1-0 with a 4.63 ERA versus the Nationals this season, he is just 4-5 with a 4.02 ERA against the club lifetime.
New York can make things easier for Pelfrey today if it can continue to swing hot bats. The Mets pounded out a season-high 21 hits in Sunday's finale with the Chicago Cubs, avoiding a three-game sweep with an 18-5 triumph.
Ruben Tejada drove in five runs and hit his first career homer, while Ike Davis drove in three runs and scored three times, finishing a triple shy of the cycle. Jon Niese gave up five runs over six-plus innings in the victory, just the Mets' second in seven games so far on a 10-game road trip.
"Obviously my numbers don't look good on paper, but I'm thankful that our offense did a great job today," said Niese.
The Nationals have won five of their last eight and are also coming off a victory on Sunday, as they notched an 8-1 triumph over the Pirates in the rubber match of a three-game series.
Ryan Zimmerman drove in four runs for Washington, while Adam Dunn hit a solo homer and drove in two runs on the day. Jason Marquis gave up just the one run over six innings for the victory.
"Start by start I feel I'm getting closer to being consistent," Marquis said.
Jordan Zimmermann is also taking a start-by-start approach as he makes his third tonight since returning from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander was tagged for five runs over four innings in his return versus St. Louis on Aug. 26, but then limited Florida to just a hit over six scoreless innings on Tuesday. Zimmermann struck out nine without a walk, but earned his second no- decision of 2010.
"It's probably the best I've felt in a long time," Zimmermann told Washington's website. "I kept the ball down and actually got some fastballs inside, which I didn't do in my first start."
The 24-year-old is 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA in two career starts versus the Mets.
The Nationals have won seven of 12 versus the Mets this year, with the clubs splitting six meetings so far in Washington.
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
| The Bubble Breakdown | |||
| CONFERENCE | LOCKS | SHOULD BE INS | AT-LARGES TAKEN (assuming no auto bid outlier) |
| ACC Betting Odds | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| Big East Betting Odds | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Big Ten Betting Odds | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Big 12 Betting Odds | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Pac-10 Betting Odds | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| SEC Betting Odds | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| MVC Betting Odds | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| MWC Betting Odds | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| TOTAL | 28 | 5 | 25 |
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
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